Integrating the promotion of physical activity within a smoking cessation programme: Findings from collaborative action research in UK Stop Smoking Services

Background: Within the framework of collaborative action research, the aim was to explore the feasibility of developing and embedding physical activity promotion as a smoking cessation aid within UK 6/7-week National Health Service (NHS) Stop Smoking Services. Methods: In Phase 1 three initial cycles of collaborative action research (observation, reflection, planning, implementation and re-evaluation), in an urban Stop Smoking Service, led to the development of an integrated intervention in which physical activity was promoted as a cessation aid, with the support of a theoretically based self-help guide, and self monitoring using pedometers. In Phase 2 advisors underwent training and offered the intervention, and changes in physical activity promoting behaviour and beliefs were monitored. Also, changes in clients’ stage of readiness to use physical activity as a cessation aid, physical activity beliefs and behaviour and physical activity levels were assessed, among those who attended the clinic at 4-week post-quit. Qualitative data were collected, in the form of clinic observation, informal interviews with advisors and field notes. Results: The integrated intervention emerged through cycles of collaboration as something quite different to previous practice. Based on field notes, there were many positive elements associated with the integrated intervention in Phase 2. Self-reported advisors’ physical activity promoting behaviour increased as a result of training and adapting to the intervention. There was a significant advancement in clients’ stage of readiness to use physical activity as a smoking cessation aid. Conclusions: Collaboration with advisors was key in ensuring that a feasible intervention was developed as an aid to smoking cessation. There is scope to further develop tailored support to increasing physical activity and smoking cessation, mediated through changes in perceptions about the benefits of, and confidence to do physical activity

Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. This paper provides principles for selecting and preparing data, making seasonal adjustments, extrapolating, assessing uncertainty, and identifying when to use extrapolation. The principles are based on received wisdom (i.e., experts’ commonly held opinions) and on empirical studies. Some of the more important principles are:• In selecting and preparing data, use all relevant data and adjust the data for important events that occurred in the past.• Make seasonal adjustments only when seasonal effects are expected and only if there is good evidence by which to measure them.• In extrapolating, use simple functional forms. Weight the most recent data heavily if there are small measurement errors, stable series, and short forecast horizons. Domain knowledge and forecasting expertise can help to select effective extrapolation procedures. When there is uncertainty, be conservative in forecasting trends. Update extrapolation models as new data are received.• To assess uncertainty, make empirical estimates to establish prediction intervals.• Use pure extrapolation when many forecasts are required, little is known about the situation, the situation is stable, and expert forecasts might be biased

State–Space Forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium Time-Series in Niono, Mali

Adequate forecasting and early warning systems are based upon observations of human behavior, population, disease time-series, climate, environment, and/or a combination thereof, whichever option best compromises among realism, feasibility, robustness, and parsimony. Fully automatic and user-friendly state–space forecasting frameworks, incorporating myriad options (e.g., expert opinion, univariate, multivariate, and spatial-temporal), could considerably enhance disease control and hazard mitigation efforts in regions where vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases is pervasive and statistical expertise is scarce. The operational simplicity, generality, and flexibility of state–space frameworks, encapsulating multiple methods, could conveniently allow for 1) unsupervised model selection without disease-specific methodological tailoring, 2) on-line adaptation to disease time-series fluctuations, and 3) automatic switches between distinct forecasting methods as new time-series perturbations dictate. In this investigation, a univariate state–space framework with the aforementioned properties was successfully applied to the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, to automatically generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts and hence, providing a basis for local re-organization and strengthening public health programs in this and potentially other Sahelian districts

What traits are carried on mobile genetic elements, and why?

Although similar to any other organism, prokaryotes can transfer genes vertically from mother cell to daughter cell, they can also exchange certain genes horizontally. Genes can move within and between genomes at fast rates because of mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Although mobile elements are fundamentally self-interested entities, and thus replicate for their own gain, they frequently carry genes beneficial for their hosts and/or the neighbours of their hosts. Many genes that are carried by mobile elements code for traits that are expressed outside of the cell. Such traits are involved in bacterial sociality, such as the production of public goods, which benefit a cell's neighbours, or the production of bacteriocins, which harm a cell's neighbours. In this study we review the patterns that are emerging in the types of genes carried by mobile elements, and discuss the evolutionary and ecological conditions under which mobile elements evolve to carry their peculiar mix of parasitic, beneficial and cooperative genes

Evaluating Forecasting Methods

Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted methodological procedures, such as to prespecify criteria or to obtain a large sample of forecast errors. However, forecasters often violate such principles, even in academic studies. Some principles might be surprising, such as do not use R-square, do not use Mean Square Error, and do not use the within-sample fit of the model to select the most accurate time-series model. A checklist of 32 principles is provided to help in systematically evaluating forecasting methods

2020 APHRS/HRS Expert Consensus Statement on the Investigation of Decedents with Sudden Unexplained Death and Patients with Sudden Cardiac Arrest, and of Their Families.

This international multidisciplinary document intends to provide clinicians with evidence-based practical patient-centered recommendations for evaluating patients and decedents with (aborted) sudden cardiac arrest and their families. The document includes a framework for the investigation of the family allowing steps to be taken, should an inherited condition be found, to minimize further events in affected relatives. Integral to the process is counseling of the patients and families, not only because of the emotionally charged subject, but because finding (or not finding) the cause of the arrest may influence management of family members. The formation of multidisciplinary teams is essential to provide a complete service to the patients and their families, and the varied expertise of the writing committee was formulated to reflect this need. The document sections were divided up and drafted by the writing committee members according to their expertise. The recommendations represent the consensus opinion of the entire writing committee, graded by Class of Recommendation and Level of Evidence. The recommendations were opened for public comment and reviewed by the relevant scientific and clinical document committees of the Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS); the document underwent external review and endorsement by the partner and collaborating societies. While the recommendations are for optimal care, it is recognized that not all resources will be available to all clinicians. Nevertheless, this document articulates the evaluation that the clinician should aspire to provide for patients with sudden cardiac arrest, decedents with sudden unexplained death, and their families

Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional extrapolation methods or equal-weights combined extrapolations. RBF is most useful when it is based on good domain knowledge, the domain knowledge is important, the series is well behaved (such that patterns can be identified), there is a strong trend in the data, and the forecast horizon is long. Under ideal conditions, the error for RBF’s forecasts were one-third less than those for equal-weights combining. When these conditions are absent, RBF neither improves nor harms forecast accuracy. Some of RBF’s rules can be used with traditional extrapolation procedures. In a series of studies, rules based on causal forces improved the selection of forecasting methods, the structuring of time series, and the assessment of prediction intervals

Comparative Genomics Suggests that the Fungal Pathogen Pneumocystis Is an Obligate Parasite Scavenging Amino Acids from Its Host's Lungs

Pneumocystis jirovecii is a fungus causing severe pneumonia in immuno-compromised patients. Progress in understanding its pathogenicity and epidemiology has been hampered by the lack of a long-term in vitro culture method. Obligate parasitism of this pathogen has been suggested on the basis of various features but remains controversial. We analysed the 7.0 Mb draft genome sequence of the closely related species Pneumocystis carinii infecting rats, which is a well established experimental model of the disease. We predicted 8’085 (redundant) peptides and 14.9% of them were mapped onto the KEGG biochemical pathways. The proteome of the closely related yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe was used as a control for the annotation procedure (4’974 genes, 14.1% mapped). About two thirds of the mapped peptides of each organism (65.7% and 73.2%, respectively) corresponded to crucial enzymes for the basal metabolism and standard cellular processes. However, the proportion of P. carinii genes relative to those of S. pombe was significantly smaller for the “amino acid metabolism” category of pathways than for all other categories taken together (40 versus 114 against 278 versus 427, P<0.002). Importantly, we identified in P. carinii only 2 enzymes specifically dedicated to the synthesis of the 20 standard amino acids. By contrast all the 54 enzymes dedicated to this synthesis reported in the KEGG atlas for S. pombe were detected upon reannotation of S. pombe proteome (2 versus 54 against 278 versus 427, P<0.0001). This finding strongly suggests that species of the genus Pneumocystis are scavenging amino acids from their host's lung environment. Consequently, they would have no form able to live independently from another organism, and these parasites would be obligate in addition to being opportunistic. These findings have implications for the management of patients susceptible to P. jirovecii infection given that the only source of infection would be other humans